Bitcoin’s latest worth construction has not been easy to sit through. The worth motion has spent months moving sideways to lower, printing a sequence of bearish month-to-month closes since October which have positioned the crypto sentiment in worry. That sort of gradual strain tends to feel worse than sharp sell-offs.
According to a crypto analyst, as an alternative of treating the latest stretch as a warning signal of extra declines to return, historical past reveals that the Bitcoin worth is much closer to a turning point than most members notice.
The 2018 Parallel: Six Red Candles, Then A 4x Move
“With the ongoing panic, buying makes more sense here,” the analyst wrote, including that Bitcoin might attain one other all-time excessive following this transfer. The chart proof they cite stretches again to late 2018 to early 2019, the one different time Bitcoin printed six straight crimson month-to-month candles.
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This interval between 2018 and 2019 is among the most instructive chapters in Bitcoin’s worth historical past, and what occurred subsequent reshaped all the cycle.
From August 2018 by way of January 2019, Bitcoin closed six consecutive crimson month-to-month candles in a descent that took the value from about $7,700 all the best way all the way down to roughly $3,500. Sentiment had totally deteriorated, retail members had largely capitulated, and to the common observer, the value motion appeared damaged.
However, that was not the case. Those six months truly compelled out weaker fingers, absorbed persistent promote strain, and quietly constructed the bottom for what got here subsequent. By May 2019, Bitcoin had surged to almost $10,500, greater than a 3x acquire from its cycle lows. By June, it was urgent $13,000, representing greater than a 4x return from the lows of that six-candle decline.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @ourcryptotalk On X
A Familiar Pattern In A Very Different Market
Bitcoin’s current price action, whereas not similar, shares a few of these traits. The present worth play out appears to be like very like that 2018/2019 sequence in construction, however the context can be extra constructive.
Bitcoin’s consecutive crimson month-to-month candles since October 2025 introduced the value from a peak above $126,000 all the way down to lows beneath $70,000, which is a managed pullback of over 45% from the excessive. Painful by standard requirements, however measured within the context of Bitcoin’s historic drawdowns.
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As famous by the analyst, the candles are crimson, however they’re not impulsive. There’s no panic construction, simply regular promoting strain that’s been absorbed over time. However, whereas(*6*) throughout the multi-month decline, institutional buyers have been transferring in the other way. Strategy, the world’s largest company Bitcoin holder, has accumulated over 122,000 BTC throughout this era.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @ourcryptotalk On X
If the 2019 restoration template applies at any comparable scale, a 3x to 4x transfer from latest lows would place Bitcoin someplace between $180,000 and $250,000 within the months forward. Even a extra conservative 2x restoration from the $67,000 vary would put the Bitcoin worth buying and selling at new all-time highs above $130,000 within the coming months.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
