After closing the week under an important assist degree, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen under the $65,000 assist for the primary time because the early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152.
Amid this efficiency, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto may very well be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that one other main crash may very well be across the nook.
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Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA
On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “historically pivotal” improvement after closing final week under the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which presently sits “at the center of a major confluence zone.”
Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, positioned between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, across the $58,000-$60,000 ranges, outline the broader construction of BTC’s present vary.
Over the previous three weeks, the cryptocurrency tried to develop a requirement area round this space, which was beforehand a serious provide space. However, this degree hasn’t historically been a structurally dependable assist for BTC’s worth, the analyst asserted, noting that it has beforehand acted as a 10-month resistance.
“In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response,” he defined.
Per the put up, this imbalance has led to a weekly shut under the 200-week EMA, shedding it as assist on this timeframe. This suggests {that a} “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” may observe quickly.
The analyst cautioned that now that worth has closed the week under this crucial degree, there’s a “strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.”
If the underside retest holds, the construction would shift from defending the assist to confirming the resistance at this degree. He warned that if that degree begins to behave as resistance, draw back continuation will turn into more and more possible.
BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000
Rekt Capital additionally famous that BTC’s current efficiency aligns intently with its worth motion in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly shut under the 200-week EMA acted as a structural set off to the second wave of bearish acceleration.
“Bitcoin would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower. That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself,” he asserted.
Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historic efficiency, however on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one in every of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective.
According to Martinez’s put up, market observers should watch the upcoming interplay of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), because the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has traditionally preceded the ultimate leg down of the bear market.
Bitcoin dropped round 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops earlier than its demise crosses happened in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto skilled one other 45%-52% decline.
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Now, BTC has fallen greater than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential demise cross on the three-day chart by the tip of February. “If history repeats — even partially — this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned.
Based on this, Martinez predicted that one other 30%-50% correction from present ranges may observe, inserting the cryptocurrency’s goal close to the $30,000-$40,000 helps. “If the cross confirms, it becomes a level to take very seriously,” he concluded.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
