On-chain analytics agency Glassnode has reiterated the present weak spot in Bitcoin’s value motion, noting that there’s much less demand for the main crypto now in comparison with after the LUNA crash in 2022. This signifies that one other Bitcoin crash could also be on the playing cards, with a potential drop under the psychological $60,000 stage prone to set off huge liquidations.
Glassnode Hints Another Bitcoin Crash May Be Imminent
In an X post, Glassnode famous that the long-term holder (LTH) Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps provide density throughout value ranges. The platform additional acknowledged that the current assist above $65,000 is anchored within the 2024 H1 accumulation vary and that this demand has absorbed current promote strain.
Glassnode warned that a decisive break under this stage would possible open the trail for a Bitcoin crash towards the Realized Price at round $54,000. In one other X put up, the analytics platform famous that in BTC’s first sharp leg down in November 2025, the market absorbed heavy promote strain aggressively, which was much like what occurred after the LUNA and FTX crashes.
Meanwhile, though the current Bitcoin crash to $60,000 led to some accumulation, Glassnode acknowledged that it was notably weaker than the November 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse. The platform additionally famous that the current crash imposed drastic psychological strain on these long-term holders, much like the LUNA crash.
In each instances, the 7-day EMA of the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell under 1 after buying and selling for one to 2 years above it. Basically, long-term holders are seeing important losses, a “rare shift in conviction” that Glassnode famous sometimes occurs within the deeper phases of bear markets.
As CoinGape reported earlier, Glassnode flagged a structural weakness following the current Bitcoin crash. The platform famous that BTC spot volumes are structurally weak and depressed, creating a demand vacuum and accelerating realized losses. It is price noting that, along with a potential drop to the Realized Price at round $54,000, consultants similar to veteran dealer Peter Brandt have warned that BTC might crash to as little as $40,000 because the bear market deepens.
The Bottom Is Still Not In
On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicated that BTC has not but reached a backside regardless of these Bitcoin crashes. In a analysis report, the platform famous that the Realized value assist at round $55,000 has not but been examined.
The report additional acknowledged that the BTC price continues to be buying and selling above this realized value. In previous cycles, Bitcoin fell 24% to 30% under the realized value, adopted by 4 to 6 months of base formation, reinforcing the view that sturdy bottoms are time-intensive processes quite than single-day capitulation occasions.
CryptoQuant additional famous that LTH conduct doesn’t replicate capitulation, as these holders are at the moment promoting at a breakeven stage. However, in previous cycles, bear market bottoms have shaped after holders endured 30% to 40% losses, indicating that a additional Bitcoin crash stays on the playing cards earlier than a full reset.
Another purpose CryptoQuant is assured that Bitcoin hasn’t but discovered a backside is that market cycle indicators stay within the Bear Phase and never the Extreme Bear Phase. This Extreme Bear Phase traditionally marks the beginning of the bottoming processes and sometimes lasts for a number of months.
It is price noting that a Bitcoin crash under $60,000 might set off a liquidation cascade based mostly on exercise within the choices market. Deribit information exhibits that the most important cluster of put choices is across the $58,000 stage. A drop under this important assist stage might liquidate a number of positions.
