The odds of a U.S. authorities shutdown earlier than February 14 proceed surging. The spikes come as Bitcoin and broader crypto markets proceed to slip, with complete market cap falling 1.8% to $2.3 trillion. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 9 from 10, including to issues Bitcoin might fall once more after dipping under $70,000 over the past partial shutdown.
U.S. Government Shutdown Odds Jump as Funding Deadline Nears
On the prediction market platform Polymarket, merchants at the moment are pricing an 84% chance of a U.S. authorities shutdown earlier than February 14. The odds have climbed sharply, rising by 66% in latest days, as fiscal tensions improve.
Source: Polymarket
Notably, the shutdown fears are tied on to expiring federal funding. The market has grown extra pessimistic that lawmakers can finalize a deal earlier than the deadline. As a end result, expectations for a short-term funding invoice stay low.
Polymarket knowledge suggests merchants see little probability Congress will move a invoice this week. This uncertainty has coincided with a broader market sell-off. Bitcoin has remained underneath strain as danger sentiment weakens throughout digital belongings.
Analysts’ Views as Bitcoin Holds Near Key Levels
Analysts on X have outlined their views for Bitcoin because the broader crypto market stays underneath strain. One analyst on X, The Hunter, warned that the present dip might deepen, pointing to BTC close to $67,000, Ethereum at $1,950, and Solana at $81.
The analyst additionally argued Bitcoin might preserve falling and probably break under $50,000 if promoting strain continues. However, Axel Bitblaze supplied a much less aggressive draw back view, evaluating Bitcoin’s present construction to 2024 earlier than a serious upside transfer.
He stated BTC could stay caught in a large $60,000 to $80,000 vary for a while, with transient rallies adopted by sharp pullbacks. Bitblaze additionally recommended the market might see uneven situations that frustrate each bulls and bears, reasonably than a fast rebound.
While he doesn’t anticipate a clear V-shaped restoration, he additionally dismissed the thought of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000, describing the transfer as a substitute as a sluggish grind that wears out merchants earlier than a base types.
RSI Near Oversold as MACD Stays Deeply Negative
While shutdown odds proceed rising, Bitcoin’s technical construction stays weak. The broader development turned bearish after rejection close to the $100,000 to $95,000 area earlier in 2026. BTC’s price additionally broke under the prior consolidation zone round $85,000 to $90,000. That breakdown accelerated the decline towards the $60,000 to $70,000 assist vary.
Source: TradingView
The RSI is at 30.54, whereas its sign line is close to 28.79. Notably, this locations momentum close to the oversold degree, which might increase possibilities of a short-term bounce. However, the MACD is deeply destructive at round -5,774.60 and -4,954.66.
The histogram is close to -819.94, indicating sturdy bearish momentum regardless of slight contraction. Key assist is at $65,700, adopted by the psychological $60,000 degree. Resistance has shifted decrease, now close to $70,000 to $72,000.
