Toncoin (TON) has fallen greater than 75% from its 2024 peak and over 65% from its 2025 excessive. Investors are blaming Telegram for promoting an quantity equal to roughly 10% of TON’s circulating market capitalization.
Analysts are divided over the affect of this transfer. At the identical time, Toncoin’s progress has develop into extra carefully tied to information associated to Telegram.
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Critics Blame Telegram for Toncoin’s Weak Price Performance
A current Financial Times report stated that Telegram offered greater than $450 million value of Toncoin in 2025. This disclosure sparked intense debate amongst analysts and the crypto group.
Concerns shortly emerged concerning the motivation behind the sale. Critics argue that the first aim was to fund Telegram’s company operations relatively than straight assist the TON ecosystem. This has raised questions on long-term worth accrual for TON holders.
Some traders declare that this promoting exercise has contributed to TON’s stagnant value efficiency.
“Holy schmolly, no wonder TON is down 66%,” investor 0xGeeGee stated.
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Investor Mike Dudas compared the scenario to Pump.enjoyable, which spent $225 million shopping for again its personal token, to focus on the distinction in technique.
The FT report additionally famous that round $500 million value of Telegram’s Russian bonds have been frozen below Western sanctions. This element means that Telegram nonetheless faces monetary publicity to Russia. The data has fueled investor doubts about Telegram’s financial independence.
Negative information surrounding Telegram might have a long-lasting and vital affect on Toncoin’s value. Previously, Telegram CEO Pavel Durov described TON because the financial spine of the Telegram platform.
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What Do Telegram’s Defenders Say?
In response to those considerations, Manuel Stotz, Executive Chairman of TON Strategy Co (NASDAQ: TONX), pushed again in opposition to the criticism.
He emphasised that Telegram stays dedicated to the TON blockchain. He clarified that each one TON offered is topic to a four-year vesting interval. The largest purchaser is TON Strategy Co itself, a everlasting capital automobile designed to build up, maintain, and stake TON relatively than promote it available on the market.
Meanwhile, CoinGecko reported that TON Strategy is at the moment sitting on losses. The agency holds greater than 4% of TON’s complete provide, now valued at over $406 million, whereas it spent $713 million to build up the place.
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Supporting the protection, contributor DamX argued that Telegram’s gross sales don’t symbolize an exit however an effort to stability the ecosystem. He claimed that extreme TON accumulation by Telegram would hinder decentralization. Controlled gross sales to long-term buyers with lockups and vesting are introduced as a more healthy different.
“Telegram sells TON because it has to, not because it wants out. Ads, revenue sharing, minting and upgrading usernames, gifts, Premium, Stars, and other in-app payments all settle through TON in one way or another. As Telegram scales, it naturally accumulates TON from these flows,” DamX said.
Regarding the alleged monetary publicity to Russia, Pavel Durov denied the declare, stating that the knowledge was inaccurate.
Ultimately, the credibility of those defenses could also be examined by whether or not TON’s value recovers in 2026 and whether or not investor confidence returns to the altcoin.
