Tom Lee used a Hong Kong convention stage to argue that Ethereum could also be near a cyclical flip, pointing to historic market analogs and on-chain cost-basis information that, in his view, counsel the selloff has reached exhaustion.<\/p>\n
Speaking on the third Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13\u201314, Lee stated Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark had recognized a placing resemblance between Ethereum\u2019s current worth motion and two main S&P 500 declines: the 1987 crash and the 2011 selloff. Lee described the setup as unusually tight.<\/p>\n
Is The Ethereum Bottom In?<\/h2>\n
\u201cTom DeMark, he\u2019s a legendary market timer, and he\u2019s provided an analysis to us that says Ethereum, in the last few months, especially since October, is really mirroring what happened to the S&P 500 in 2011 and what happened to the S&P 500 in 1987,\u201d Lee stated. \u201cIf you were involved in US markets, both times marked major declines in the S&P. Well, according to him, there\u2019s a 93% correlation to what Ethereum\u2019s doing today to what the S&P did in 1987.\u201d<\/p>\n
Related Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\nThat comparability is doing quite a lot of work in Lee\u2019s argument. If the 1987 analog holds, he stated, Ethereum would have already bottomed on March 7. If the 2011 comparability is the higher match, the market is bottoming<\/a> now. In both case, Lee\u2019s conclusion was the identical: \u201cSo using his analysis, we think we\u2019re at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter now.\u201d<\/p>\nHe didn’t depart the case resting on chart symmetry alone. Lee additionally pointed to Ethereum\u2019s realized worth, the on-chain metric that estimates the common acquisition value of cash based mostly on their final motion on the blockchain. In his telling, that determine now sits at $2,241 for ETH, giving buyers a technique to decide how deeply underwater the common holder has turn out to be.<\/p>\n
Lee stated the sample at prior lows is revealing. In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 39% low cost to realized price<\/a>. In 2025, the low cost reached 21% earlier than ETH turned greater. \u201cCurrently, we\u2019re at 22%,\u201d he stated, including that the market is now sitting in roughly the identical zone the place final yr\u2019s reversal started. \u201cSo we\u2019re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher.\u201d<\/p>\nRelated Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\nIn different phrases, Lee\u2019s thesis is that Ethereum doesn’t want a pristine macro backdrop or a recent narrative cycle to stabilize; it solely must revisit the type of holder ache that has traditionally marked exhaustion. By his measure, that threshold is already right here.<\/p>\n
\nTOM LEE:
THE ETHEREUM BOTTOM IS IN \u203c\ufe0f<\/p>\n
Bitmine x TOM DEMARK mapped ETH in opposition to previous S&P 500 crash recoveries.<\/p>\n
The construction now intently matches 1987 and 2011, each main cycle bottoms.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd39 93% correlation to 1987
\ud83d\udd39 Match to 2011 backside
\ud83d\udd39 Realized worth: $2,241
\ud83d\udd39 ETH ~22%\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/62TZscjChe<\/a><\/p>\n\u2014 BMNR Bullz (@BMNRBullz) March 19, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nHe additionally tried to zoom out from the fast drawdown and re-anchor ETH in an extended time horizon. \u201cBefore you lose any hope, keep in mind that over the last 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed every other asset class over the past decade,\u201d Lee stated. \u201cIn the last 10 years, Ethereum\u2019s return is 49,000%. That means almost 490 times your money.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lee contrasted that with Bitcoin\u2019s 11,000% achieve over the identical span and even with Nvidia<\/a>, which he known as \u201cthe single best stock in the US,\u201d saying it had returned 65 occasions buyers\u2019 cash.<\/p>\nAt press time, ETH traded at $2,147.<\/p>\n![\"Ethereum](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/ETHUSDT_2026-03-20_12-02-04.png?resize=1024%2C502\")
ETH should overcome the 0.382 Fib, 1-week chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nFeatured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
He didn’t depart the case resting on chart symmetry alone. Lee additionally pointed to Ethereum\u2019s realized worth, the on-chain metric that estimates the common acquisition value of cash based mostly on their final motion on the blockchain. In his telling, that determine now sits at $2,241 for ETH, giving buyers a technique to decide how deeply underwater the common holder has turn out to be.<\/p>\n
Lee stated the sample at prior lows is revealing. In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 39% low cost to realized price<\/a>. In 2025, the low cost reached 21% earlier than ETH turned greater. \u201cCurrently, we\u2019re at 22%,\u201d he stated, including that the market is now sitting in roughly the identical zone the place final yr\u2019s reversal started. \u201cSo we\u2019re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher.\u201d<\/p>\n In different phrases, Lee\u2019s thesis is that Ethereum doesn’t want a pristine macro backdrop or a recent narrative cycle to stabilize; it solely must revisit the type of holder ache that has traditionally marked exhaustion. By his measure, that threshold is already right here.<\/p>\n TOM LEE: Bitmine x TOM DEMARK mapped ETH in opposition to previous S&P 500 crash recoveries.<\/p>\n The construction now intently matches 1987 and 2011, each main cycle bottoms.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udd39 93% correlation to 1987 \u2014 BMNR Bullz (@BMNRBullz) March 19, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n He additionally tried to zoom out from the fast drawdown and re-anchor ETH in an extended time horizon. \u201cBefore you lose any hope, keep in mind that over the last 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed every other asset class over the past decade,\u201d Lee stated. \u201cIn the last 10 years, Ethereum\u2019s return is 49,000%. That means almost 490 times your money.\u201d<\/p>\n Lee contrasted that with Bitcoin\u2019s 11,000% achieve over the identical span and even with Nvidia<\/a>, which he known as \u201cthe single best stock in the US,\u201d saying it had returned 65 occasions buyers\u2019 cash.<\/p>\n At press time, ETH traded at $2,147.<\/p>\n Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/div>\nRelated Reading<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
\n
THE ETHEREUM BOTTOM IS IN \u203c\ufe0f<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd39 Match to 2011 backside
\ud83d\udd39 Realized worth: $2,241
\ud83d\udd39 ETH ~22%\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/62TZscjChe<\/a><\/p>\n