In a analysis paper dated October 24, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin may surge to $125,000 by the top of the 12 months if former President Donald Trump secures victory within the upcoming US presidential election.
When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000
Kendrick’s analysis hinges on the interaction between Bitcoin’s worth actions and the US political panorama. “We use daily BTC vol levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves,” he states within the report titled Bitcoin – Post-US Election Playbook. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin costs have been ascending in current weeks, aligning with different trades favored by Trump supporters.
The report forecasts that Bitcoin is prone to attain roughly $73,000 by Election Day on November 5, nearing its all-time excessive of $73,800 recorded in March. “Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win,” Kendrick notes.
Related Reading
Betting markets are reflecting growing confidence in a Trump victory. “The average betting odds of a Trump victory now stand at 59%, according to RealClearPolitics. Furthermore, conditional probabilities in specific betting markets (Polymarket) suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins the presidency,” the report highlights.
Should Trump win, Kendrick anticipates immediate bullish momentum for Bitcoin. “Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further price rise of about 4% when the presidential outcome is known, and around 10% in total within a few more days,” he explains.
Related Reading
The potential for a Republican sweep of Congress amplifies this outlook. “If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target level of USD 125,000 should come into view,” Kendrick asserts. This state of affairs is underpinned by vital open curiosity in Bitcoin name choices expiring on December 27 on the $80,000 strike worth, suggesting speedy motion towards that stage.
What If Harris Wins?
In distinction, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, the report suggests a short lived setback for Bitcoin costs. “If Harris wins, we see BTC initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs around $75,000,” Kendrick initiatives. This implies a resilient long-term outlook for Bitcoin whatever the election consequence, although the magnitude of features would differ.
Kendrick emphasizes the position of choices market knowledge in gauging potential worth actions. “Options info helps estimate initial post-election price moves,” he states. The heavy buying and selling volumes and well-liked strike ranges function indicators of investor expectations and market positioning forward of the election.
The current dip in Bitcoin’s worth to an area low of $65,200 was addressed as properly. Kendrick believes that is “likely to be the last before the U.S. presidential election,” suggesting that any short-term corrections could also be overshadowed by the upcoming political developments.
At press time, BTC traded at $67,520.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
