Renowned crypto asset hedge fund supervisor Charles Edwards has made a daring prediction relating to the longer term worth of Bitcoin. Edwards, founding father of Capriole Investments, shared his insights by way of X (previously Twitter), outlining a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential to succeed in $280,000 within the coming 12 months.
In his assertion, Edwards referenced historic information and several other key elements that would drive Bitcoin’s worth to new heights. He started by evaluating Bitcoin’s efficiency after the 2020 halving event, stating, “If Bitcoin’s post halving returns are the same as 2020, we are looking at $280K Bitcoin next year.”
Bitcoin Price Could Top $300,000 Next Year
As the chart by Edwards exhibits, the third bull run in 2020 was quite subdued compared to the earlier ones. The first bull market (halving cycle) in 2012 noticed Bitcoin worth peak at $1132, marking a dramatic enhance of 8,996% over 11 months (335 days). The second bull run in 2016 resulted in December 2017 when the value reached roughly $20,000, marking a 2,089% enhance over 17 months (518 days).
Edwards acknowledged that some would possibly argue that earnings diminish with every cycle. However, he made a counterpoint that 2020’s efficiency was pinned down as a consequence of predominant elements. First, Edwards attributed the lackluster efficiency of the 2020 bull market to China’s choice to ban Bitcoin mining, which led to a 50% discount in hash price and had a stifling impact on Bitcoin.
Second, he highlighted the aggressive tightening measures taken by the Federal Reserve, which negatively impacted Bitcoin’s efficiency throughout that interval, stating, “2020 was the worst Bitcoin bull market in history. I believe overall performance was pinned down due to the -50% destruction of mining network by China and the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in history.”
However, Edwards expressed optimism in regards to the future, pointing to a contrasting financial panorama in 2024. He said, “In fact, 2024 marks the polar opposite to 2021. QE has resumed and the Fed has started easing, with Fed chair Powell expecting 3 cuts this year. A weaker dollar = a stronger Bitcoin.”
He additionally in contrast the upcoming launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January to a “second halving,” highlighting the potential market influence, saying, “Further, I consider the January Bitcoin ETF launches as powerful as a ‘second halving’.”
Drawing parallels to the gold market, Edwards emphasised that Bitcoin’s present market cap of round $800 billion is considerably smaller than gold’s market cap when the GLD ETF launched in 2004.
He famous that gold skilled a parabolic rise of over 300% in simply seven years following the launch of the ETF, stating, “With a market cap of around $3.3T, Gold commenced a parabolic rise of over 300% to $13T in under 7 years. Bitcoin’s market cap today is just over $800B. Smaller assets are generally capable of experiencing larger upside returns.”
Furthermore, Edwards underscored the speedy development of Bitcoin, asserting that it’s presently outpacing the adoption price of the Internet, saying, “Bitcoin is currently growing faster than the Internet.”
The hedge fund supervisor concluded by summarizing his prediction, stating:
A 500% return over the 18 months following the halving wouldn’t be uncommon for Bitcoin traditionally. An further 300% return over the following 2-5 years from the ETFs alone could be a conservative assumption. When you drill it all the way down to the 2 most necessary elements for Bitcoin this cycle, and add them collectively, it’s straightforward to reach at a conservative Bitcoin worth of $300K within the subsequent couple of years.
At press time, BTC traded at $43,134.
Featured picture from YouTube / Blockworks, chart from TradingView.com
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