After a short-lived rally above $28,000 this week following Grayscale’s landmark courtroom case victory in opposition to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the conversion of GBTC right into a spot ETF, the worth of BTC has as soon as once more settled across the $26,000 mark. This comes after yesterdays’ SEC’s resolution to postpone all Bitcoin spot ETF selections for 45 days.
Renowned crypto analyst, Rekt Capital, has weighed in on the state of affairs with a sequence of tweets that present perception into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory for the upcoming month. As the analyst remarks, Bitcoin has registered a bearish month-to-month candle shut for the month of August as a consequence of yesterdays’ worth plunge.
Bitcoin Price Prediction For September 2023
In a sequence of tweets, Rekt Capital defined, “BTC closed beneath ~$27,150, confirming it as misplaced help. It’s attainable BTC may rebound into ~$27,150, perhaps even upside wick past it this September. But that might doubtless be a reduction rally to substantiate ~$27,150 as new resistance earlier than dropping into the $23,000 area.
Historically, September has not been significantly form to Bitcoin, with the month recording the least variety of positive-returning months at simply two, and at the moment being on a 6-year negative-returning streak.
Rekt Capital delves deeper into this pattern, stating, “A frequently recurring downside amount for BTC in the month September is -7%. If BTC were to drop -7% from current price levels this month, price would retrace to ~$24,000.”
However, in keeping with the evaluation by the analyst, the following main month-to-month degree is sitting at ~$23,400. This means that worth perhaps doesn’t cease at -7% if BTC can’t achieve new momentum. Instead, BTC may probably draw back wick -10% in whole to succeed in that subsequent main month-to-month degree.
The analyst additional elaborated on the historic efficiency of Bitcoin in September, noting, “September – positive or negative month? Typically, we tend to see a negative month for BTC in September. However, for the most part BTC sees single-digit drawdown in Septembers. 8 out of 10 of the past Septembers have experienced downside. Only 2 months saw small, single-digit gains in the month of September (+2% in 2015 and +6% in 2016).”
Worst Case Scenario
Drawing parallels with earlier years, Rekt Capital highlighted that probably the most recurring drawdown in September has been a -7% dip, as noticed in 2017, 2020, and 2021. However, he additionally identified that Bitcoin solely noticed double-digit retracement in 2019 (-13%) and in 2014 (-19%). The latter, being a bear market yr, won’t be the perfect comparability for 2023, which is shaping as much as be a bottoming out yr, akin to 2019 or 2015.
Addressing the looming query of one other potential crash in September, the analyst opined, “In 2019 BTC saw a -13% retrace but we also need to keep in mind that BTC just saw one of its worst-ever August drawdowns at -16%. It’s unlikely that Bitcoin would experience severe back-to-back drawdown both in August and now in September as well.”
Concluding his evaluation, Rekt Capital shared his private forecast, “I think a drawdown of around -7% to -10% September could reasonably occur from current levels. This would see price drop to ~$24,000 – $23,000.”
Remarkably, there’s unlikely to be a Bitcoin spot ETF resolution in September, which often is the greatest catalyst for the market in the mean time. The subsequent deadlines for filings by Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity and the others is October 16 and 17. Only an motion by the SEC after the lost lawsuit in opposition to Grayscale may present a shock occasion. However, there are at the moment no deadlines or statements from the SEC if and when they may perform the ruling.
At press time, BTC traded at $26,104.
Featured picture from Finextra Research, chart from TradingView.com
