Bitcoin (BTC) worth tumbled practically 8% within the final 24 hours because the U.S. greenback index continues to maneuver above 110, making the crypto and equities markets weak forward of the Fed‘s FOMC assembly on September 20-21. Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicts BTC worth may fall under $13,900, and to $11,500 in an excessive state of affairs.
Historical Data Indicates Bitcoin (BTC) Price Can Fall Further
In the month-to-month timeframe, the Bitcoin worth is at the moment struggling to surpass the $20,000 stage, exhibiting a weak point. The $20,000-$23,350 vary will principally resolve bears and bulls right here. The worth actions in July and August point out the distinction within the buy-side stress, with $20,000 as help.
However, price movement in September has been so weak and suggests $20,000 is now turning right into a resistance stage. If the month ends with Bitcoin (BTC) worth under the $20,000 stage, the subsequent help ranges are $17,165 and $13,900.
Historically, the Bitcoin (BTC) worth varieties a backside at or under the 200-weekly transferring common (WMA) after a Death Cross. The post-Death Cross retracements have been within the vary of -42% to -73%.
Therefore, contemplating the historic post-Death Cross retracements and help ranges, the Bitcoin worth to backside at round $13,900. In the intense state of affairs, the BTC worth to backside at $11,500.
As the BTC worth is already under the 200-WMA and psychological stage of $20,000, the draw back appears most certainly. However, there’s a large distinction in market cap measurement, liquidity, and institutional and retail adoption of Bitcoin now as in comparison with earlier instances.
Bitcoin bottomed 547 days earlier than the Bitcoin Halving in 2015 and 517 days earlier than the Bitcoin Halving in 2018. Therefore, if Bitcoin goes to backside 517-547 days earlier than the upcoming April 2024 Halving, then the underside will happen in This fall this yr.
Macros Impacting BTC Price
Despite a growing number of new daily addresses, the Bitcoin worth continues to dive under $20,000.
The Bitcoin (BTC) worth will principally rely on the Fed charge hike on September 21. Wall Street specialists equivalent to Goldman Sachs predict a 75 bps rate hike in September and 50 bps charge hikes in November and December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of a 75 bps charge hike is 80%.
Currently, the BTC worth is buying and selling above the $19,000 stage after recovering practically 4% from the 24-hour backside at $18,390. If the U.S. greenback index stays close to 110, the BTC worth might be beneath stress.
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