Bitcoin (BTC) worth pushed to $74,425 on 16 March, marking its strongest degree since early February as a shift in the Middle East battle improved threat urge for food throughout markets. The transfer got here after Iran’s new supreme chief, Mojtaba Khamenei, confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would stay open to all nations besides the United States and Israel, partially easing a blockade that had disrupted roughly 20% of world seaborne oil for over two weeks.
The announcement adopted US army strikes on Kharg Island on Friday, the hub answerable for the overwhelming majority of Iran’s oil exports, although oil infrastructure was in a roundabout way focused. Markets seem to have learn the mixture of partial de-escalation on transport and continued army strain as a step towards containment reasonably than additional escalation.
Daily chart evaluation
On the each day timeframe, BTC has pushed to a excessive of $74,425, a degree not seen since 4 February. Two technical indicators are supporting the transfer.
The RSI has not but reached overbought territory regardless of the rally, and continues to make greater highs consistent with worth. This is a wholesome sign that implies momentum is constructing reasonably than exhausting itself. In distinction, earlier rally makes an attempt in February noticed the RSI diverge from worth earlier than pullbacks adopted.
More considerably, the On Balance Volume (OBV) is breaking out for the first time since Bitcoin fell under $80,000 at the begin of the yr. OBV measures cumulative shopping for and promoting strain, and a breakout on this indicator factors to real accumulation and rising participation behind the transfer. This is a notable shift from the bearish OBV divergence that had been in place all through February and early March, the place worth made greater highs whereas OBV printed decrease highs.
It is value noting that at the time of writing, the each day candle remains to be in its early hours, that means the full quantity image will solely develop into clear by the shut. If OBV confirms the breakout on a closing foundation, it might add vital conviction to the bullish case on this timeframe.
Key levels: $74,425 is the speedy resistance. $72,000 is the nearest assist under.
4-hour chart evaluation
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the native development has been constructive with worth steadily pushing greater since the late February lows. Each successive pullback has discovered assist at greater levels, constructing a staircase sample of greater lows that displays sustained shopping for curiosity on dips.
However, the quantity behind this transfer warrants warning. Each successive push greater on the 4-hour chart has been accompanied by declining quantity, a sample that sometimes suggests the transfer is dropping participation even as worth grinds greater. This creates a divergence between worth construction, which appears to be like bullish, and quantity construction, which isn’t confirming with the identical degree of conviction.
This doesn’t essentially imply the transfer will fail, but it surely suggests merchants ought to watch for both a quantity enlargement to validate the breakout or a rejection that would lead to a retest of the $72,000 assist space. A pointy enhance in quantity on the subsequent leg greater would resolve the divergence positively and assist continuation towards resistance. Conversely, a breakdown under $72,000 on rising quantity can be a warning signal that the native rally is fading.
Putting all of it into the context of the main development
To put all of this into context, it can be crucial to zoom out. On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin stays firmly in a downtrend. Earlier this yr, the 20 EMA crossed under the 50 EMA on the weekly chart, a bearish sign that confirms the shift in the longer-term development. The construction of decrease highs and decrease lows has been in place since the all-time excessive of $126,272 in October 2025, and nothing in the present worth motion has modified that.
The $60,000 assist space strains up with the weekly 200 SMA round $59,000, and it’s value remembering that in earlier Bitcoin bear markets, worth has damaged under the 200 SMA earlier than discovering a real backside. This degree held throughout the preliminary Iran sell-off in late February, but it surely shouldn’t be handled as an unbreakable ground.
The $85,000 zone stays the key resistance overhead. This space aligns with the 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the newest impulse transfer decrease, together with main worth motion resistance and the weekly EMAs. A push into this zone would nonetheless characterize a retest of the downtrend from under, not a reversal.
At the backside of the chart, the weekly RSI has dropped to levels which were seen very not often in Bitcoin’s historical past. While many merchants learn deeply oversold RSI readings as a sign {that a} backside could also be close to, it can be crucial to do not forget that in previous bear markets Bitcoin has declined 30% or extra after the weekly RSI first entered oversold territory. Oversold doesn’t imply the promoting is over.
Looking at this chart by the lens of a bear market, and making use of Dow Theory to the present construction, the timing suggests we may doubtlessly be round midway by this cycle’s downturn. If the sample of earlier bear markets holds, accumulation for Bitcoin may start later this yr, however doubtlessly at levels effectively under the place worth is presently buying and selling.
For now, the short-term image is constructive with the each day OBV breakout being a genuinely constructive sign. But the weekly chart makes it clear that any rally from right here is going on inside the context of a bigger downtrend, and merchants must be sizing and managing threat accordingly.
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