Concerns concerning the Bitcoin bear market proceed to develop. On-chain analyst Willy Woo stated BTC stays in Phase 1 of a broader downturn amid the market dip. Woo argued that rising volatility and weakening liquidity verify the pattern. He stated inside circulate fashions and volatility metrics now align, pointing to additional stress in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Bear Market Framework Points to Phase 2 Risk
As per Willy Woo, volatility serves as a major pattern detector for quantitative analysts. He stated Bitcoin entered a bear market when volatility spiked upward. Volatility has continued climbing, which he stated exhibits the bear pattern strengthening. He added that volatility sometimes peaks mid- to late-cycle earlier than weakening.
Woo defined that smaller secondary volatility peaks usually seem close to the macro backside. He stated these peaks point out capitulation throughout the market. However, he confused volatility provides just one lens for assessing the Bitcoin bear market. Therefore, he depends on inside liquidity and investor circulate fashions revealed weekly.
According to Woo, these liquidity fashions at the moment reinforce the volatility outlook. He framed the Bitcoin bear market in three phases to make clear positioning. Phase 1 started in Q3 2025 when Bitcoin liquidity broke down, and the value adopted decrease. He stated Bitcoin reacts sooner than equities as a result of it stays a smaller, extremely delicate asset.
In Phase 2, Woo stated world equities flip bearish as danger urge for food fades. He described equities as a big, slow-moving market that finally confirms broader weak point. Phase 3 begins when liquidity stabilizes and capital outflows peak. He stated closing capitulation usually happens throughout that stage.
When requested about his previous $200,000 to $300,000 BTC price projection in 2021 by an X consumer, Woo acknowledged the error. He stated derivatives markets modified cycle dynamics and required expanded fashions past on-chain knowledge. He argued that altering market construction influenced value habits.
Glassnode Flags Demand Exhaustion Near $70K
Glassnode data added context to the Bitcoin bear market outlook. They stated each try to reclaim $70,000 since early February met demand exhaustion. Notably, much more than $5 million per hour in realized revenue led to cost rejection.
Glassnode contrasted that with Q3 2025’s euphoric section. During that interval, revenue realization surged between $200 million and $350 million per hour. The agency stated present skinny liquidity circumstances make a sustained transfer into the $70,000 to $80,000 vary structurally troublesome.
Meanwhile, crypto investor Ran Neuner famous the absence of a blow-off prime or retail euphoria. He cited fragmented narratives, together with quantum danger and regulation uncertainty. Therefore, he stated he diminished publicity and focused on 11 positions constructed to face up to additional draw back inside the ongoing Bitcoin bear market. As Coingape reported, Woo lately warned that advances in quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s security model and weaken its edge over gold.
He stated markets have began pricing within the danger of a possible “Q Day,” when quantum machines might break present public-key encryption. Woo added that after quantum dangers entered investor consciousness, the long-standing Bitcoin-to-gold valuation pattern broke and moved in the other way.
