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In the continued debate over Bitcoin’s market trajectory, two distinguished crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on X, underscoring the group’s divided sentiment. While one maintains {that a} drastic downturn stays potential, the opposite posits that the worst of the market downturn has already handed—citing a notable 87.5% likelihood.
Bitcoin Bears In Trouble?
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) posted on X and laid out two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.”
He didn’t present a selected likelihood for both consequence however emphasised {that a} Black Swan occasion—a time period used to explain a uncommon, surprising occasion that may drastically impression markets—can’t be dominated out. While noting that such a unprecedented downturn was beforehand unlikely, he now concedes that current shifts within the macro panorama could go away room for it:“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.”
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In direct distinction, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded with a extra bullish outlook, asserting that the underside is already behind us. He referenced a monitor report of Bitcoin worth reversals round Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it really works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time. “Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.”
His method depends on mapping out worth actions in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets usually worth in rate of interest choices (and associated information) earlier than official bulletins. Astronomer’s technique contends that Bitcoin sometimes finds native bottoms in a window spanning from as much as 5 “2D bars” earlier than an FOMC date to the day of the assembly itself.
“All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes.
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He factors out that the subsequent FOMC assembly is scheduled for March 19, that means the underside—if the historic sample holds—ought to seem no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.”
To bolster his argument, Astronomer factors to what he perceives as “peaking fear” out there. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established merchants as typical indicators {that a} rebound could be imminent: “Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are protecting their reputation […] I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.”
At press time, BTC traded at $83,277.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
