In a brand new analysis report shared on X, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, has dispelled ongoing rumors alleging that the Bitcoin value is being artificially held down. Consorti lays out a complete examination of on-chain information, pointing to the conventional cyclical habits of long-term holders (LTHs) and their profit-taking patterns as key drivers of bitcoin’s present buying and selling dynamic.
Is The Bitcoin Price Currently Manipulated?
One of the core arguments Consorti addresses is the suspicion that “the boring period of consolidation” could be engineered via hidden market forces. In his phrases: “Claims of artificial price suppression is a gold-era argument that doesn’t work in bitcoin, whose ledger is auditable in real time, meaning we can see exactly who is buying and selling through their own node on the network.”
Consorti underscores that any concerted effort to artificially cap Bitcoin can be seen to on-chain observers. Instead, the information factors to a well-trodden sample: after accumulating BTC within the cheaper price ranges—between $15,000 to $25,000—LTHs promote parts of their holdings into greater costs, redistributing cash to new market individuals who proceed bidding bitcoin upward. “This is normal. Those who held for years start offloading as price moves higher, transferring coins to new buyers stepping in to bid the price to even higher highs.”
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According to Consorti, Bitcoin has now entered its 100+ day consolidation vary round $95,000—a stretch he compares to earlier multi-month consolidation phases that finally resolved in main value expansions.
The analysis gives a retrospective take a look at how LTHs behaved in earlier value climbs: “LTHs accumulated BTC from $15k to $25k, before selling to new market entrants (short-term holders) who bid the price up to the next ‘step’. They did the same from $25k to $40k, from $40k to $65k, and from $65k to the ~$95,000 range we find ourselves in now.”
Consorti notes that LTHs have currently turned again into web accumulators. Although the shift is slight, he contends this habits normally marks the tail finish of consolidation earlier than one other breakout.
The researcher additionally factors to a current $1.4 billion Ethereum hack on Bybit—allegedly the most important in crypto’s historical past—as an element momentarily knocking bitcoin off an try to interrupt out of its falling wedge sample. Despite the market disruption, bitcoin solely slipped 1.75% on the day, which Consorti says is a testomony to the main BTC’s “outright strength” and diminishing correlation to broader crypto property.
Overall, Consorti expects the falling wedge to “resolve itself by the first week of March,” barring further black swan occasions. He additionally observes that Bitcoin’s present consolidation zone could stretch past 101 days, cautioning that “maximum pain in the market” may see it lengthen to 236 days, mirroring final summer time’s protracted consolidation interval.
Consorti additionally references the attainable impact of President Trump’s working group on Bitcoin, which is about to determine on the viability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the tip of June. Should a remaining determination come sooner, he suggests it could present a serious spark for the market—both bullish or bearish, relying on the result.
Spot ETF inflows, as soon as seen as a main propeller of Bitcoin’s value, have diminished since early January. Although they nonetheless present 7–8 determine day by day inflows, these are down considerably from the 9–10 determine ranges that occurred all through final spring and fall, hinting that different market forces, similar to institutional and on-chain dynamics, could be extra influential on this cycle’s value motion.
Another matter is Bitcoin’s dislocation from global M2 money supply, which had tracked the value with uncanny accuracy for almost 18 months. That correlation broke when international M2 instructed a deeper downturn for bitcoin, but BTC continued to hover round $95,000. Now that M2 is edging upward once more on a weaker US greenback, the analysis suggests the potential for Bitcoin aligning for its subsequent leg greater.
Comparing Bitcoin to gold with a 50-day lead likewise implies that gold’s current trajectory could “point to an upside resolution”, albeit much less exactly than M2 correlations. If this holds, a push in the direction of $120,000 seems believable.
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Consorti concludes by shifting consideration to the evolving panorama of US Treasury (UST) demand. Major international holders similar to China and Japan have progressively lowered or flatlined their positions—China’s holdings have reached a 2009 low of $759 billion, whereas Russia has absolutely exited, and Japan stays at $1.06 trillion for 13 years. “It’s not just China. Russia has fully exited USTs. Japan, the largest foreign holder, has been sitting flat at $1.06 trillion for 13 years.”
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s share of excellent marketable USTs has surged from 22% in 2008 to 47.3% in 2025, stepping in as international demand wanes. But a brand new participant is becoming a member of the market within the type of stablecoins, which collectively maintain about $200 billion in Treasuries to again their dollar-pegged tokens. According to Consorti, this stablecoin demand: “Could lower long-term interest rates. The proliferation of stablecoins and their use of Treasuries as a reserve asset means they’re functioning like an entirely new foreign central bank.”
He argues that stablecoins successfully guarantee recent demand for Treasuries, serving to the US authorities offset declining international involvement and maintain its borrowing wants. White House AI & Crypto Czar David Sacks has publicly echoed this attitude, saying stablecoins assist preserve liquidity for US debt.
At press time, BTC traded $95,645.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
