Bitcoin has soared previous the $98,000 on Thursday, fueling intense debate amongst merchants over whether or not the $100K milestone is once more inside attain or if the present rally is susceptible to a swift correction. Behind the scenes, market observers level to surging open curiosity (OI) and elevated leverage, spotlighting the potential of a leverage-driven push.
Bitcoin Rally Or Trap?
CryptoQuant group analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) warned of a “leverage driven pump,” noting a $2.4B bounce in Bitcoin’s OI inside 24 hours. Via X, he wrote: “Leverage Driven Pump: $2.4B (7.2%) increase in Open Interest in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours.”
Confirming these observations, well-known crypto commentator Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) highlighted the numerous position of contemporary lengthy positions in propelling costs larger: “Lots of fresh longs coming in here on BTC which is shoving price higher. Kinda funny that the entire market is getting lifted right now off the back of these degen longs here.”
Analysts from alpha dojo (@alphadojo_net) echoed sentiments of warning, underscoring a notable hole between futures-based open curiosity and spot-driven purchases: “BTC continues to grind upwards, while the OI rises steadily, but there is little spot buying. BTC is now approaching the upper end of the range again. It seems that some market participants have tried to frontrun Saylor‘s planned $2 billion bid.”
Though the prospect of a giant purchase might propel the market, they warn that with out contemporary catalysts like a “short-term narrative or positive news, it currently looks like BTC will struggle to sustainably pump above the $100k mark.”
Renowned crypto analyst Bob Loukas provided a cyclical framework for deciphering Bitcoin’s value actions, noting that the market could also be approaching the top of 1 multi-week cycle and the beginning of one other: “We’re on verge of completing a Bitcoin Weekly Cycle, as I’ve been sharing last 6 weeks. For context, there have been just 5 weekly Cycles since the 2022 bear market lows. (Avg 6month events). 4 of these cycles had 90-105% moves. One failed to do much (June-Sept 23).”
When requested if this indicators an imminent market prime, Loukas clarified:“I’m saying we’re about to begin a new one. Cycles always begin from the lows.” His feedback counsel that whereas a cycle transition is imminent, it doesn’t essentially equate to a market peak—quite, it might mark the beginning of a brand new uptrend.
Technical analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) emphasized the importance of Bitcoin’s each day shut above the $97,700 threshold, suggesting {that a} profitable retest of this zone might pave the best way for a transfer past $100,000: “The early-stage momentum generated by the Bullish Divergence has translated itself into this recent breakout move. And with the recent Daily Close above ~$97700, Bitcoin will now try to retest said level as support to enable trend continuation.”
He additional elaborated on Bitcoin’s relative power index (RSI) channel, implying that the break above a collection of decrease highs could sign the subsequent leg up: “Over time, Bitcoin’s price continued to retest the blue trendline as support. And the RSI continued to hold its Channel Bottom. Lately, the RSI broke its series of Lower Highs, indicating that the RSI may be ready to uptrend to the Channel Top.”
Looking forward, a transparent retest of $97,700 as help might verify Rekt Capital’s bullish outlook: “Daily Close above $97700 has been successful (light blue). Any dips into $97700 would constitute a retest attempt. A post-breakout retest of $97700 into new support would fully confirm the breakout to position BTC for a rally to $101k resistance.”
At press time, BTC traded at $98,645.
