In a video titled “The Macro Outlook for 2025: BIG Moves Ahead,” Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI) laid out a sweeping perspective on the place development and inflation developments seem like heading, why the upcoming cycle appears to be like extra akin to 2017 than 2021, and the way Bitcoin might be primed for notable upside if its historic relationship with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index and world liquidity holds true.
Forcast: Bitcoin Macro Summer Is Coming
Bittel defined that macro “summer” is the dominant regime he sees unfolding all through 2025, that means development momentum is selecting up whereas inflation stays modest sufficient for central banks to keep away from overtightening. He underscored that “the business cycle still chugs along,” pointing to bettering world manufacturing information and to the truth that extra international locations have been shifting into enlargement territory. Although slight fluctuations persist in some indicators, together with pockets that briefly resemble a slowdown, Bittel stays assured that these don’t mark the onset of a brand new macro “fall” with sustained development deceleration and rising inflation. He as a substitute suggests these headwinds will show short-lived, given an general atmosphere during which world monetary situations are loosening.
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He highlighted the decline in US bond yields and the current weakening of the greenback as components that can permit “more cowbell” from central banks. China’s bond yields have additionally collapsed, which Bittel sees as a significant sign that Beijing can present further liquidity injections with out fearing extreme overheating. He described this mixture as an echo of 2017, a yr when a softer greenback and decrease rates of interest contributed to an upswing in each conventional markets and cryptocurrencies.
Turning to inflation, Bittel dissected why shelter and different service-related prices are such important laggards. He noticed that greater than one-third of headline CPI is tied to housing, which “typically lags home prices by around 17 months,” and identified that shelter inflation remains to be holding official CPI numbers elevated. He expects this dynamic to provide central banks leeway to ease financial coverage additional as soon as they see the info turning down. While some cyclical forces, corresponding to commodity costs, may push inflation greater later within the yr, Bittel emphasizes that the height just isn’t imminent and that the Federal Reserve will doubtless retain sufficient flexibility to keep away from stifling the continuing financial rebound.
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In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel zeroed in on the enterprise cycle’s function in driving outsized value actions. He recalled that when the ISM Index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the main cryptocurrency proceeded to rally by dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro image abruptly topped out as quickly as ISM and liquidity peaked, chopping quick the cycle and capping Bitcoin’s run at roughly an 8x transfer from its preliminary pivot out of recession. Today’s backdrop appears to be like materially totally different. Bittel famous that “the ISM is just now moving above 50,” which contrasts with the late 2020–early 2021 surge that raced from the low 40s to the mid-60s virtually in a single breath.
He added that “if we’re right about the weaker dollar and a pickup in global liquidity,” Bitcoin’s path might extra carefully resemble the elongated upturn of 2017 than the compressed momentum of 2021. Although Bittel didn’t provide a exact value goal for Bitcoin, he referenced the historic precedent of a 23x leap in 2017 as soon as the cycle gained traction. His warning was clear—he said repeatedly that these strikes are by no means assured and that “I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going 23x,” however he additionally careworn that in each prior crypto run, persistent energy within the enterprise cycle proved to be “the magic gift that keeps on giving.” He believes the inspiration has been set for an prolonged upswing, but reminded everybody that 20–30% drawdowns are inevitable even throughout highly effective rallies.
He additional famous that “once you understand where the economy is going, you understand where assets are going,” and reiterated that liquidity, particularly from China, might develop into a good larger driver for digital belongings as 2025 progresses. Bittel strengthened the purpose, saying that “historically, the biggest surges in Bitcoin happened when the ISM is rising and we’re in macro summer.”
He additionally highlighted that any short-term pullbacks in Bitcoin shouldn’t be mistaken for macro regime shifts. The cyclical situations, fueled by simpler monetary situations, stay in place, although he reminded viewers to count on corrections and stay affected person. In his phrases, “it’s never a straight line,” and it may really feel like “the end of the world” in some weeks. Yet, given the parallels to 2017 and the continuing slide within the greenback, he believes the runway for Bitcoin—and different danger belongings—nonetheless seems comparatively lengthy.
While Bittel’s presentation additionally addressed broader market segments, corresponding to commodities and cyclical equities, Bitcoin acquired particular focus. In explaining why GMI’s macro framework nonetheless alerts optimism, Bittel emphasised that “dips are for buying,” offered that traders preserve a detailed eye on indicators of any deeper structural slowdown. He careworn that “no one should forget that if you sign up for Bitcoin, you’re signing up for volatility,” however with the enterprise cycle solely simply starting its ascent and liquidity situations gaining traction, there could also be ample room for Bitcoin to maneuver past its earlier peaks if the info proceed to favor cyclical enlargement.
At press time, BTC traded at $97,710.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
