Crypto analyst Bob Loukas has launched a brand new video analysis titled “No Bull.” In the video, Loukas delves into the present state of the Bitcoin market, addressing rising issues about the potential for a canceled bull run.
Loukas begins by acknowledging the extended interval of consolidation for the Bitcoin worth. He senses that “there is now some fear creeping into the market,” partly as a consequence of components such because the Bitcoin ETF being “out for quite some time” and the halving having “come and go,” with out resulting in important upward worth motion.
Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over?
Loukas observes that whereas conventional markets are performing robustly—with “the stock market making all-time highs seemingly every week” and “even gold making big all-time highs”—Bitcoin continues to “languish,” and altcoins are “pretty much dying a slow death.” He notes that “the only thing out there that’s really working is the really speculative memecoins,” contributing to unfavourable sentiment within the crypto house.
However, he considers this improvement to be “kind of normal,” emphasizing that regardless of these challenges, Bitcoin stays “close to the all-time highs from the prior cycle.” Discussing the eight months of consolidation in Bitcoin’s worth, Loukas interprets this era as a bullish signal. “Eight months of consolidation is actually pretty bullish if the timing is right in the four-year cycle. Sentiment is right, it’s been reset; fundamentals, macro, I think they all look right,” he states.
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Loukas additional highlights that the market is “23 months in” for the reason that lows of the final cycle in November 2022, “just shy of a 24-month or 2-year anniversary of this cycle,” which is because of conclude round November-December 2026. He acknowledges the “quite a bit of fear that’s sort of crept into this market” following a “very bullish, very frothy period” from the ETF approval leak in September-October 2023 as much as the height in March 2024.
One of the principle fears, in keeping with Loukas, is that Bitcoin made its final all-time excessive seven months in the past in March, and since then, “we’ve been forming these lower highs on the monthly and also to some extent a lower low structure.” This has created anxiousness amongst traders who “entered the market way too late, waiting for confirmation,” solely to seek out themselves “locked out when the market went on this five straight months move,” with out offering a chance to purchase throughout a dip.
He factors out that many traders have “rolled into a bunch of altcoins in this later period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,” resulting in a state of affairs the place, regardless of Bitcoin being “still up around 3x off the lows,” lots of people really feel they haven’t “extracted any sort of value out of this cycle” or have even “lost money over this period.” Loukas considers this situation to be “quite normal from a cycle structure perspective.”
He emphasizes that in this bullish part, the market didn’t expertise a “typical 30% decline at any given point,” with the “biggest declines” being “mostly time-based and were only around about 20% from peak to trough before making a new high.” This atypical conduct “threw a lot of people off” and “made it difficult for people to get in,” as they had been “looking to buy on a dip which never really eventuated.”
Loukas means that the present consolidation is a obligatory part to “completely reset sentiment in order to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.” He finds it important that Bitcoin is “sitting here 23 months, just around 20% or so off the all-time highs of the last four-year cycle high back in 2021,” which makes it really feel “more primed for the next phase of the four-year cycle than anything else.”
He additionally attracts parallels with earlier cycles, noting that from the cycle low in December 2018 to the primary level the place Bitcoin made a brand new excessive, “it took 23 months to get to the price four-year cycle high to exceed that.” Similar patterns had been noticed in earlier cycles, with timeframes of “around 25 months” and “around 22 months” to succeed in new all-time highs. In distinction, the present cycle achieved this milestone “in just 16 months, much sooner,” which he attributes largely to the ETF information that “forced buyers in earlier in the cycle than normal.”
Loukas believes that this accelerated timeline has created a dynamic the place “we now have to rotate a lot of coins,” permitting “a lot of whales, a lot of old-timers” to “unlock” and “exit and rotate,” whereas “institutional players, larger account players have been accumulating those coins in this period.” He views this as “a matter of time more than anything else,” decoding the present interval as a course of the place the market “ends up erasing all that bullish sentiment” from the earlier part, thus permitting “a complete separation from one phase of the cycle to this phase of the cycle”—basically a “mid-cycle decline.”
When Will BTC Price Break Out?
Overall, Loukas stays largely optimistic: “So far in this four-year cycle, I see nothing that has changed that trajectory, nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is any different to the last cycles.”
He cites a number of components supporting his bullish outlook, together with “massive inflows into Bitcoin, mostly institutional players,” and the absorption of enormous sell-offs by entities like “the German government” and “the US government,” which haven’t considerably impacted the worth. Loukas emphasizes that “price is down only 20%; it’s held up well.” He additionally mentions that “the ETF is still there; it’s going to be pushed through the independent advisor channels,” and “the timing is there; the macro, the fundamentals are there.”
Loukas is especially excited in regards to the cyclical patterns, noting that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explains that “the first year surprises everybody, that makes up a lot of ground. The second year seems like it stalls because it consolidates that first year of gains. And the third year is the mania year. And right now, beginning next month, we have the mania year that is on deck.”
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He predicts that “within the next 90 days… we’re going to break out of this consolidating range; we’re going to break to the upside.” Once this occurs, he believes Bitcoin “isn’t going to look back,” anticipating a interval that “may only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green candles.” While he refrains from offering particular worth targets, he acknowledges that reaching “somewhere between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”
Loukas emphasizes that the main focus needs to be on “time and sentiment,” aiming for a transfer “in the range where prior cycles have peaked,” which has been “very consistent at around month 35 since the last low.” This timing would place the projected peak round “October of 2025,” giving “another 12 months to an expected or projected peak.” He notes that this isn’t set in stone and that the height might come “three, four, five months earlier,” as market actions “can come in many different flavors.”
Turning to the fast future, Loukas admits that the following two months are “a little murky,” with “a lot of factors still at play right now.” He brings up the upcoming US election on November 4th, mentioning that “Trump and the GOP have really been pushing crypto and Bitcoin,” and that “the market is certainly going to respond very, very favorably to an election win by the GOP purely because of their stance on crypto.” However, he clarifies that he doesn’t suppose “it matters one bit” who wins, as Bitcoin has thrived even when “governments have been very hostile towards it.”
Loukas speculates that the market may “trend sideways into that period in November,” and {that a} important transfer won’t happen till after the election concludes. He means that “we still have around three to four weeks of some trending sideways action,” and he could be “highly surprised if this market can push into the $70,000s before the election here in the US.”
At press time, BTC traded at $60,699.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
