Crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) posits a powerful bullish outlook for Bitcoin within the fourth quarter of 2024. Leveraging historic information, Astronomer gives an analysis through X, suggesting an 82% chance of an extremely bullish pattern primarily based on the efficiency of Bitcoin in September.
The crypto analyst opens his evaluation with an emphasis on the surprising constructive efficiency of Bitcoin in September. “September is about to close and to the general public’s surprise, it’s looking like it’s going to be green (by a long shot), with the chance of setting the greenest September in 2024, supporting our breakout thesis we have been on for a while now,” he writes.
Delving into the sentiment of the market, Astronomer notes a big disconnect between public notion and precise market positions. “And although we’re not the only ones anymore that are on the full bull thesis, data is and remains data. And after thorough inspection, despite the talking/analysis posts, most are not positioned yet, took profit too early or will cheer for dips and say they are a gift for the reason of wanting one,” he defined.
Related Reading
He additional elaborates on the sentiment inside closed circles: “This observation is not just coming from public posts or Twitter, but also from the array of paid groups partaken in to conduct these analyses. Not allowed to share names or details, but most groups indeed are long and took profit early, are looking for an entry, or are short. So the market’s hand seems to be working.”
82% Chance Bitcoin Will Be Bullish
Astronomer’s bullish thesis leans on historic information, significantly the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin value. “The data analysis is fairly simple here: each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months after, i.e., a green October, November, and December. And this has happened 3/3 times since BTC inception,” he asserts, signifying a powerful seasonal sample.
However, he’s fast to mood this with a critique of his methodology, admitting to the potential pitfalls of low information samples: “Now like I said, I am not the biggest fan of seasonality and our analysis only has 3 data points, which gives us only a 67% confidence to make the claim that the next three months will indeed be green (low data fallacy). But to add significance, by the binary nature of bullish/bearish, there is also exclusivity to the data: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, Q4 has not been green each month.”
Related Reading
He refines his thesis additional, “So, by including the exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points is that: ‘The direction of September has determined the general direction of Q4 and if September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 has followed 9 out of 11 times. So if September closes above $59k, there is an 82% chance Q4 will be bullish’.”
The prediction stirred dialogue inside the neighborhood. A consumer @pieceofsheet99 commented skeptically, suggesting the potential for an surprising downturn: “If September turned out to be green to everyone’s surprise, October can also turn out to be red to everyone’s surprise as well.” Astronomer responded, reaffirming his reliance on historic traits, “Indeed, but that’s not what we have seen typically. So, I personally, as always, stick to the data.”
Astronomer’s evaluation concludes on a be aware of strategic optimism, emphasizing the significance of aligning with market dynamics and historic patterns slightly than speculative impulses. “How bullish? We will see (time is more important than price), but it’s not about planning for retirement and making fast money. It’s about being on the right side of the trade, time after time after time, enjoying the market stress-free and not having too many regrets through losing money or being sidelined (enjoying the process). And this way, eventually (rather soon), you hit your goals.”
At press time, BTC traded at $64,622.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
