The Ethereum worth motion has considerably underperformed merchants’ expectations over the previous few months. Ethereum is at present trapped in a bearish trend, with its worth now down by 23% over a 30-day interval. This downturn contrasts sharply with the hopes of many ETH traders who’ve been anticipating a bullish surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs.
However, technical evaluation means that Ethereum’s latest efficiency is not unusual for the cryptocurrency, because it seems to be mirroring the same sample noticed in 2016.
Ethereum Maintains Similarities With 2016 Price Movements
Despite the worth considerations, a deeper look into Ethereum’s historic worth actions means that the present state of affairs won’t be as unfamiliar because it appears. According to an ongoing evaluation by fashionable crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum’s worth motion in 2024 carefully mirrors its efficiency in 2016 when seen on the month-to-month candlestick chart. This sample of repetition turned much more obvious after August 2024 concluded with Ethereum closing on a bearish candle, mirroring the identical consequence in August 2016.
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Isolated, this could’ve in all probability not meant something. However, as Cowen has highlighted, this sample has been constant all through 2024, relationship again to January. Interestingly, Ethereum has closed month-to-month candlesticks the identical manner as in 2016 for eight months in a row. As such, this might give an concept of how Ethereum might proceed to play out for the remainder of the yr.
#ETH / #USD month-to-month candles proceed to trace 2016 completely.
If it continues to play out, it might recommend #ETH is inexperienced in September, after which pink Oct-Dec.
Then in 2025 #ETH turns inexperienced for some time pic.twitter.com/G8WtDwQlWY
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
Back in 2016, Ethereum ultimately went on an enormous 19,000% rally, which noticed it attain $1,590 for the primary time. If this continues to play out like in 2016, traders can look in the direction of a inexperienced month-to-month shut for Ethereum in September after which three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this worth motion repetition continues after December 2024, Ethereum will ultimately go on a notable worth rally above its present all-time excessive. This would push fervent Ethereum bulls into the much-needed profitability they’ve been anticipating.
Road To $5,000?
At the time of writing, Ethereum is buying and selling at $2,445, a decline of 10.85% over the previous seven days and 23% over the previous 30 days. If the present development continues to reflect the 2016 sample, Ethereum’s bearish momentum may persist throughout the rest of the yr. However, not all hope is misplaced for Ethereum bulls, because the cryptocurrency is at present hovering round a crucial help stage that might trigger a rebound upwards.
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Ethereum’s worth is at a vital help stage, particularly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement stage, simply above $2,400. A big bounce from this stage might sign the beginning of an upward development, resulting in a detailed above its month-to-month open by the tip of September. An ETH surge above $3,000 into $4,000, and subsequently, $5,000 continues to be within the books.
Featured picture created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
